2023 election dynamics

Calvin Manika

With only a few months to go before Zimbabweans elect a president, members of parliament and local government representatives, the country is in full election mode. 

The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has ramped up its campaign the main opposition party has sparked hopes of a meaningful contest. ZANU-PF has almost finalised its primaries while the main opposition Citizens for Coalition Change (CCC) is still working on its candidate selection process.

“Elections are not obvious; the decision lies with us. We know the promises of last elections, the achievements for the past five years and the type of leadership we want. We will decide,” said Patrick Ndlovu of Victoria Falls.

ZANU-PF’s campaign is a mix of state events and party activities as recently witnessed with the party addresses in churches, national events and funerals. Meanwhile, Nelson Chamisa’s  Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) which put up a spirited performance during  last year’s by-elections is trying to establish itself while simultaneously preparing for the 2023 polls.

Despite CCC triumph in last year’s by-elections, political analysis on the electoral terrain after the by-elections showed that ZANU-PF’s position as the ruling party is still relatively strong as it actually made gains in the by-elections. Analysts say, the political and electoral playing field remains uneven and stacked in favour of the ruling party.

The CCC’s won 19 of the 28 seats up which were up for grabs. However, its candidates were previous holders of 21 of the 28 seats. An analysis shows that, the party managed to return 19 seats and lost two. ZANU-PF on the other hand retained all the seats it previously held in both Parliament and local government, and took  away  two more seats from the opposition.

In the aftermath of the March 26 by-election, there has been debate on social media on voting trends for ZANU PF and the opposition in Matabeleland provinces.

“The regional anger on why Tsholotsho voted ZPF (ZANU PF) is very unfortunate if it isn’t equal to the size of anger on the 8 other constituencies that did the same. 21/38 constituencies in Matabeleland have ZANU-PF MPs. Why single out Tsholotsho for your ridicule? Elsewhere it’s even worse,” Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) activist, Discent Bajila, tweeted.

ZANU-PF have 21 out of 38 MPs in Matabeleland constituencies. It holds 20 of the 24 rural Matabeleland constituencies. 

“The political and electoral playing field remains as in the days of Robert Mugabe. The ruling party has all but perfected its messaging, its use of the law and security institutions against opponents, and the conflation of party and state resources to boost its position,” said Farai Muza, a political analyst.

ZANU-PF has gained a foothold in rural Matabeleland except for Binga which has remained an opposition stronghold. Analysts say the opposition have it all to do and cannot afford to leave things to fate but need solid groundwork. Muza told Community Podium that a comprehensive opposition strategy should consider the overall political environment and honestly assess the opposition’s chances of unseating the ruling party. 

“Given the level of investment ZANU-PF puts into the rural electorate, the opposition needs real, sustained engagement with these voters beyond the electoral cycle. The mammoth task of winning over people fed and sustained by ZANU-PF cannot be a once-off event as polls approach. Carefully articulated messages and localised campaigns are needed to make inroads in ZANU-PF power bases,” added Muza.

Despite ZANU-PF dominance, to date, Matabeleland North and South have proven to be the only rural districts in Zimbabwe able to deliver opposition parliamentary seats. In addition, all Bulawayo seats but one went to the opposition in 2018. Matabeleland’s share in 2000 was 37% of all the MDC’s parliamentary seats (21 out of 57) – more or less double the 15-20% which Matabeleland represents in national population figures.

In 2000, the Movement for Democratic Change, in its first election after launch, won 21 out of the 23 Matabeleland constituencies.

In Matabeleland North, the MDC in won 73.6% of the vote in 2000. In 2018, the party, which ran as MDC Alliance, won 37.8%. Combined with the splinter party MDC-T, the MDC vote was 47.3%, more than ZANU PF’s total share of the vote, 39.5%. However, ZANU PF won the most seats in the province in 2018. The opposition split vote proved vital for Zanu PF victories.

“What’s more, traditional leaders, who are custodians of decisive rural constituencies are still brazenly partisan. The few who have accommodated different views were stripped of their chieftainship and replaced, enabling ZANU-PF to maintain its hold over the rural vote,” said Anesu Ntini who was an elections observer in 2018. 

A recent research concluded that Chamisa will win the election in the upcoming polls. The survey was conducted for The Brenthurst Foundation by independent London-based research group SABI Strategy. The survey, conducted in January this year using an in-depth 15-minute questionnaire, shows Chamisa would win 53% of the vote to Mnangagwa’s 40% among those who say they will definitely vote this year.

The survey also showed that Chamisa’s Citizens Coalition for Change party (CCC) is set to win the parliamentary election, out-performing ZANU-PF, which has held power for 43 years since independence in 1980.

“Some 42% of survey respondents said they had voted for Zanu-PF in 2018, with 40% saying they had voted for the CCC’s predecessor MDC Alliance, suggesting a sea-change in voter sentiment as Zimbabwe’s economic collapse accelerates under Mnangagwa,” noted the report.

“But 47% of voters believe the 2023 election will not be free and fair compared to just 38% who say it will be free and fair. ‘Cheating in the counting process’ was cited as the biggest threat to a free and fair election (41%) with ‘the government abusing its power’ cited by 29% and ‘security force violence’ cited by 21%,” said the report. 

Exiled former Tsholotsho North legislator Jonathan Moyo dismissed the survey’s findings by London based SABI Strategy Group describing it as  ‘fatal desperation’ which lacks objectivity.

“It is a fatal desperation to pin hopes on a phoney ‘PHONE SURVEY’ of 1000 registered voters in Zimbabwe done from London by a group paid by Brenthurst Foundation, founded by the meddlesome Oppenheimer family! London’s allegedly independent ‘SABI Strategy Group’ paid to do the phone survey, fraudulently presented as ‘fieldwork’ as it smiled to the bank with dirty Oppenheimer money. It is in fact a partner of Brenthurst Foundation and is thus not independent at all. Phoney!” Moyo tweeted.

Recently, SADC was in the country as part of the 2023 elections preparations, they met with political players including the CCC leader Nelson Chamisa. The regional bloc has a stake in the election as it strives to enhance democracy and good governance. Zimbabweans said SADC must ensure its election guidelines are implemented and outline exactly how Zimbabwe’s electoral management body can address the concerns raised in SADC’s reports from previous elections.

“Without freedom of association, access to information, fair coverage of all parties by the state media and transparency and impartiality by the electoral management body, Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections won’t be free and fair. The credibility of the ZEC is central to this goal, and to date, the body has fallen short,” said Thabiso Moyo, a resident in Hwange.

In March, the High Court  rejected a bid by opposition CCC Member of Parliament Allan Markham to compel Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to release the voters’ roll in electronic format after agreeing with ZEC that this could compromise the security of the database.

Mr Markham took ZEC to court in October last year demanding the provision of the voters’ roll in the electronic format alleging that the 58 days ZEC said it needed to produce a printed copy was excessive.

“There definitely won’t be a fair election in Zimbabwe. Zec has failed the test of transparency. To make matters worse the captured courts are aiding the criminality by protecting ZEC. This election will produce a disputed outcome just like the previous election,” said a Dete resident who declined to be named.

Since 2022, electoral stakeholders, Elections Resource Centre (ERC) and Project Vote 263 have taken the electoral body  to court demanding that an electronic voters’ roll be released for analysis ahead of this year’s polls, without success.

In January 2023, an independent electoral watchdog, Project Vote 263, took the ZEC to Zimbabwe’s High Court demanding an analysable copy. A hard copy of the voters’ roll is voluminous and has over 185,000 pages and millions of names.

ZEC chief executive officer Utoile Silaigwana said the country’s constitution does not give absolute rights and immutable obligations expressed by electoral stakeholders in their demands for an electronic version.  He said if availed, the roll may be tampered with.

This is contrary to section 21 (7) (i) of the constitution, which states that the format of the electronic voters roll shall be such that it allows its contents to be searched and analysed provided that it is formatted to prevent it from being altered or tampered with.

In November 2022, the ERC took the electoral commission to court demanding the electoral voters’ roll, but they were charged $187,000 for it.